New Delhi: India is likely to see above-normal monsoon with a cumulative rainfall estimated at 106 per cent from June to September this year of long-period average of 87 cm, informed the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday.
“The latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) as well as other climate model forecasts indicate that the El Nino condition is likely to weaken further to neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions during early part of the monsoon season and La Nina conditions are likely to develop during second half of monsoon season,” the Ministry of Earth Sciences release read.
The Meteorological Department suggests that El Nino conditions are likely to weaken in early monsoon. The weak La Nina conditions will develop which will help monsoon. The IMD’s analysis showed that in 22 La Nina years, most years have recorded above normal or normal monsoons except 1974 and 2000 when below normal rain was recorded.
“According to the rainfall data from 1971 till 2020, we have introduced new long-period average and normal…According to this normal, from June 1 to 30 September, the average of the total rainfall of the entire country will be 87 cm,” M Ravichandran, secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, said in a briefing.
“Snow cover over northern hemisphere this spring was below normal. That has an inverse relationship with southwest monsoon rainfall hence above normal rainfall is expected,” the IMD stated.
As per the forecast, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh will receive adequate rainfall whereas states such as Odisha, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal are likely to receive lower rainfall during peak monsoon months of July-August.
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has recently predicted the monsoon season. This comes shortly after their earlier prediction of severe heatwave conditions during the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. Mrityunjay Mohapatra, the chief of IMD, had cautioned that the country would experience extreme heat during this period.
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