New Delhi: A study by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) has revealed that the population share of the majority religion in India (Hindus) declined sharply by 7.8% between 1950 and 2015, while a number of neighbouring countries saw a jump in the population of their majority community.
While the Hindu population shrunk in India, the share of minorities, including Muslim, Christian, Buddhist and Sikhs, went up. However, the number of Jains and Parsis in the population mix decreased.
Between 1950 and 2015, the Muslim population share in India surged by 43.15%, Christians saw a 5.38% increase, Sikhs a 6.58% rise, and Buddhists witnessed a slight increase.
The share of Hindus in India’s population saw a decrease from 84% in 1950 to 78% in 2015, while that of Muslims witnessed an increase from 9.84% to 14.09% in the same period (of 65 years), according to the EAC-PM study.
The shrinking of the majority population in India (by 7.8%) is the second most significant decline in the immediate neighbourhood, just after Myanmar’s 10%.
Apart from India, Nepal’s majority community (Hindu) saw a 3.6% decline in its share of the country’s population.
The study, whose report was released in May 2024, assessed the trends in 167 countries across the world.
The authors of the study say “India’s performance is consistent with the larger global trends”.
“Contrary to the noise in several quarters, careful analysis of the data shows that minorities are not just protected, but indeed thriving in India,” the authors say.
India’s population growth story is starkly different from countries in its immediate neighbourhood.
The share of the Indian majority community, the Hindus, in the country’s population declined by 7.8% between 1950 and 2015. However, in the neighbouring countries, where Muslims are a majority, the community’s share witnessed an increase in the demographic mix.
Bangladesh saw the steepest increase of 18.5%, followed by Pakistan (3.75%) and Afghanistan (0.29%).
“Pakistan witnessed an increase of 3.75% in the share of the majority religious denomination (Hanafi Muslim) and a 10% increase in the share of the total Muslim population despite the creation of Bangladesh in 1971,” noted the study co-authored by Shamika Ravi, Abraham Jose and Apurv Kumar Mishra.
India’s eastern neighbour, Myanmar, saw the highest decline in the majority community’s share in the country’s population in India’s neighbourhood. The majority population of the Theravada Buddhists in Myanmar dipped by 10% in 65 years.
Apart from India and Myanmar, Nepal saw a 3.6% decline in its majority Hindu population, said the EAC-PM study.
In the Maldives, the share of the majority group (Shafi’i Sunnis) declined by 1.47%.
However, India’s neighbours with a majority Buddhist population, Bhutan and Sri Lanka, also saw an increase of 17.6% and 5.25%, respectively, according to the study released in May 2024.
“The change in the proportion of minorities as a share of the total population serves as a reliable proxy for the status of minorities in a country, which is fostered through policies including defining minorities, which itself is a rare practice globally,” said the study, which assessed the trends in 167 countries globally.
The change in numbers in India is in line with the global trends of a declining majority, according to the study. In certain cases, like in countries like Australia, China, Canada, New Zealand and a handful of east African nations, the dip in the majority community’s share in the population saw a steeper plunge than India’s.
“The share of the majority religious denominations in 167 countries has, on average, reduced by 22% from 1950-2015. The change varies from a 99% decrease in Liberia to an 80% increase in Namibia. 123 countries experienced a decrease in the share of the majority denomination,” noted the study.
Additionally, the 35 high-income Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) nations saw a substantial average decline of 29% in the proportion of the majority religion, surpassing the global average of 22%.
The OECD is a multilateral grouping of 38 western countries with a free-market economy.
That said, the study clarified that it did not try to figure out why these changes happened, but rather looked at the numbers to see if minorities were getting more or less represented in society.
“A decrease in the share of the majority population and a consequent increase in the share of minorities suggests that the net result of all policy actions, political decisions and societal processes is to provide a conducive environment for increasing diversity in society,” says the study by the PM’s economic council.
The authors say that India’s trend suggests “there is a conducive environment to foster diversity in the society”.
The study lauds India’s policies and institutions for bettering the lives of its minorities.
“The outcomes of these progressive policies and inclusive institutions are reflected in the growing number of minority populations within India,” the authors conclude.
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