The southwest monsoon has started advancing once again after stalling for several days and is likely to reach Mumbai within the next 48 hours, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Weather experts said the revival marks a positive development for several regions that have been waiting for sustained rainfall. However, the monsoon is expected to progress gradually as a crucial low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal is yet to form.
IMD Forecasts Further Monsoon Progress
The IMD stated that the monsoon advanced into additional parts of Maharashtra, Telangana, Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand and Bihar on June 22.
Weather conditions remain favourable for the monsoon to move further into:
- Mumbai and other parts of Maharashtra
- Remaining regions of Telangana
- Additional areas of Odisha
- Parts of Chhattisgarh
- Jharkhand
- Bihar
during the next two days.
Although Mumbai witnessed rainfall on Monday, meteorologists clarified that the showers were pre-monsoon in nature and not officially linked to the arrival of the southwest monsoon.
Experts Say Revival Is Gradual
According to IMD scientist O.P. Sreejith, the monsoon has shown signs of revival, particularly along India’s western coast.
He noted that while rainfall activity is increasing, the absence of a low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal continues to limit stronger monsoon advancement across the country.
Meteorologists expect such a weather system to develop towards the end of June, which could significantly boost rainfall activity during the first week of July.
Delhi and North India May Have to Wait Longer
Private weather forecaster Skymet indicated that the delayed formation of a Bay of Bengal low-pressure system could postpone the monsoon’s arrival over Delhi and parts of North India.
Delhi typically receives the monsoon around June 27, but current projections suggest its arrival may now occur during the first week of July.
Rainfall Deficit Remains a Concern
Despite recent progress, India continues to face a significant rainfall shortfall.
According to IMD data:
- India has recorded only 60.6 mm rainfall against the normal 106 mm expected by June 22.
- Overall rainfall deficit stands at 43%.
- Central India faces the largest deficit at 67%.
- East and Northeast India are down by 40%.
- South Peninsular India has recorded a 28% deficit.
- Northwest India remains 15% below normal rainfall levels.
El Niño Impact Continues
Weather experts attribute the sluggish monsoon advance partly to ongoing El Niño conditions, which generally suppress rainfall over the Indian subcontinent.
The IMD has projected seasonal monsoon rainfall at approximately 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA) for 2026, indicating a below-normal monsoon season.
Meteorologists believe the second half of the season could face greater challenges if El Niño conditions persist.
Outlook for the Coming Weeks
While the monsoon revival offers relief to several regions, experts caution that a stronger and more widespread rainfall pattern will depend on the formation of weather systems over the Bay of Bengal later this month.
For now, Mumbai appears set to welcome the southwest monsoon within days, while central and northern India continue to await a more substantial advance.
