Canada has recorded its largest quarterly population decline in at least 80 years, driven primarily by a sharp reduction in temporary residents, particularly international students, according to newly released data from Statistics Canada (StatCan).
Between July and September 2025, Canada’s population fell by 76,068 people, a decline of 0.2 per cent between the second and third quarters of the year. StatCan noted that this is the steepest drop in population since records began in 1946. The previous decline occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic in late 2020, when the population fell marginally by just 1,232 people.
Preliminary estimates show that the decrease was largely due to a significant fall in the number of non-permanent residents, which declined by 176,479 during the third quarter of 2025. As of October 1, 2025, Canada had 2,847,737 non-permanent residents, accounting for 6.8 per cent of the total population, down from 3,024,216, or 7.3 per cent, on July 1.
The reduction reflects record-high outflows of temporary residents following stricter immigration policies introduced by the federal government amid concerns over housing affordability and pressure on public infrastructure. These measures mark a reversal from recent years of rapid population growth fueled by large intakes of international students and temporary workers.
Data from Immigration, Refugees and Immigration Canada (IRCC) shows a sharp fall in study permits issued to Indian students, who historically form the largest group of international learners in Canada. Between July and September 2025, Indian students received 24,030 study permits, accounting for 16.4 per cent of the total 146,505 permits issued. During the same period in 2024, Indian students made up nearly 30 per cent of all study permits.
In September 2025 alone, Indian nationals were issued 8,400 study visas, compared with 14,385 in September 2024. Overall, the number of international study permits issued to Indian students fell by more than half in the third quarter of 2025 compared with the previous year.
IRCC said the cap on study permits, first introduced in 2024, has proven effective in slowing the growth of Canada’s temporary population. The number of study permit holders has declined from over one million in January 2024 to approximately 725,000 by September 2025.
Looking ahead, the federal government has projected a further seven per cent reduction in international student permits next year. IRCC announced that study permits issued in 2026 will be capped at 408,000, including 155,000 new permits and 253,000 extensions for existing students. This represents a 7 per cent drop from the 2025 target and a 16 per cent reduction compared to 2024.
The latest immigration levels plan, tabled in Parliament earlier this month, aims to reduce Canada’s temporary population to below five per cent of the total population by the end of 2027. Under the revised targets, annual admissions of new international students have been cut from 305,000 to 155,000, with further reductions planned in 2027 and 2028.
