With the onset of October, discussions around atmospheric developments in the Bay of Bengal have intensified. According to estimates by senior meteorologist Dr Surendranath Pasupalak, a cyclonic circulation is expected to form over the North Andaman Sea around October 12.
Global weather forecast models indicate that the system may intensify into a low-pressure area by October 13 and further concentrate into a depression by October 15. However, Dr Pasupalak clarified that it is too early to predict whether this system will turn into a severe cyclonic storm or what specific impact it might have on the Odisha coast.
Weather Conditions and Favourable Environment
The region is currently witnessing the withdrawal phase of the Southwest Monsoon. While the withdrawal process has slowed along the coasts of Odisha and Andhra Pradesh, monsoon activity remains quite active over the Andaman Sea region. Due to abundant moisture-laden air over the eastern Bay of Bengal, environmental conditions remain favourable for the system to intensify up to the level of a depression.
Potential Direction and Trajectory
The precise location where the circulation forms will become clearer by October 7. Weather experts are currently monitoring a few potential trajectory scenarios:
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Northward Movement: If the system forms over the North Andaman Sea and moves northward rather than toward the Andaman Islands, the likelihood of it heading toward the northern Bay of Bengal and the Odisha coast increases.
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South or Central Bay of Bengal: If the system organises over the southern or central Bay of Bengal, its trajectory is more likely to steer toward Tamil Nadu.
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Wind Patterns (October 8–12): Should coastal winds along Odisha and Andhra Pradesh organise between October 8 and 12, or if sea breezes flow from the northwest, the depression could potentially move toward the Odisha coast.
Advisory for the Public
Atmospheric developments are being continuously monitored. A clear picture regarding the low-pressure location will emerge by October 7, and its potential to grow into a cyclone will be evident by October 12. Members of the public are advised not to panic or spread rumours, and to rely solely on official weather updates.
