A fresh assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has highlighted growing internal divisions within Iran’s leadership, raising concerns over the country’s negotiating stance in ongoing tensions with the United States.
Hardliners vs Pragmatists: Power Struggle in Tehran
According to the report, Ahmad Vahidi, a senior commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), along with his inner circle, has consistently blocked efforts by more moderate leaders to adopt a flexible negotiating approach.
These moderates include Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who has reportedly pushed for diplomatic engagement but appears to have lost influence in shaping policy.
ISW analysts suggest that Vahidi has now emerged as the dominant figure, steering Iran towards a more hardline and uncompromising stance, especially in matters related to negotiations and potential conflict.
Frustration Among Moderates
The report indicates that Ghalibaf may be increasingly sidelined, with speculation that he has either considered resigning or already stepped back from the negotiation team due to disagreements over nuclear concessions.
While moderate voices may continue to advocate for diplomatic flexibility, ISW notes their influence is unlikely to significantly impact decision-making in the near future.
Public Messaging vs Internal Reality
Despite reports of internal discord, Iran’s leadership has projected unity publicly. A recent image featuring President Masoud Pezeshkian, Speaker Ghalibaf, and Judiciary Chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei was shared to reinforce the message of cohesion.
Ghalibaf also issued a strong statement emphasizing national unity and loyalty to the Supreme Leader, asserting that Iran remains united in the face of external pressure.
High-Stakes Talks in Islamabad
The developments come as diplomatic activity intensifies in Islamabad, where Iran and the United States are engaging in indirect negotiations.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived on April 24, while US envoys including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to join talks on April 25.
Reports suggest that a potential trilateral meeting could take place following bilateral discussions, signaling a critical moment in US-Iran relations.
The reported internal divisions within Iran’s leadership could significantly influence the trajectory of upcoming negotiations with the United States. With hardliners appearing to consolidate power, prospects for a diplomatic breakthrough may face increased challenges, even as formal talks continue in Islamabad.
