India can expect normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season as a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and a lower snow cover over the northern hemisphere are likely to counter the evolving El Nino conditions, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday.
“India to see normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season (from June to September). It is likely to be 96 per cent (with an error margin of 5 per cent) of the long-period average of roughly 87 cm,” M Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, told a press conference here.
There is a 67-per cent probability of normal to above-normal rainfall, said M Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology, IMD. He said the snow-covered area over the northern hemisphere and Eurasia was below normal from December 2022 to March 2023.
“If at all there is any adverse impact due to the evolving El Nino conditions during the monsoon season, it is likely to be countered by the favourable impact of a positive IOD and the lower snow cover over the northern hemisphere,” Mohapatra said.
Starting 2019, India has witnessed four consecutive years of normal and above-normal rains during the monsoon season. Mohapatra said normal to below-normal rainfall is predicted over parts of northwest India, west-central and northeast regions during the southwest monsoon season.
“Normal rainfall is likely over many parts of the peninsular region, adjoining the east-central, east, northeast areas and some parts of northwest India,” he said. The Met department head said El Nino conditions are likely to develop during the monsoon season and its impact may be felt in the second half.
He, however, added that not all El Nino years are bad monsoon years and that 40 per cent of the El Nino years in the past (1951-2022) received normal to above-normal monsoon rainfall.
This forecast comes as a relief for the agricultural sector, which heavily relies on monsoon rains for crop production.
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