India may witness a weaker-than-expected monsoon season in 2026, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) revising its rainfall forecast downward amid growing concerns over developing El Niño conditions.
In its latest update issued on Friday, the IMD projected that southwest monsoon rainfall across the country is likely to be 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), lower than its earlier forecast of 92 per cent announced in April.
The weather agency said weak El Niño conditions are expected to emerge in June and may strengthen during the second half of the monsoon season, particularly between July and September.
“The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 90% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of plus or minus four per cent, indicating below-normal rainfall is most likely,” the IMD said during a press briefing.
Several Regions Likely to Receive Below-Normal Rainfall
According to the IMD’s regional outlook, northeast India is expected to receive near-normal rainfall. However, northwest India, central India, and the south peninsular region are likely to experience below-normal monsoon activity this year.
The updated projection has increased concerns for India’s agriculture sector and rural economy, both of which remain heavily dependent on seasonal rainfall.
India’s Long Period Average rainfall for the monsoon season, based on data from 1971 to 2020, stands at 87 cm.
El Niño Raises Concerns for Agriculture and Food Prices
El Niño is a climate phenomenon associated with warming sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and is often linked to weaker monsoon rainfall in India.
The IMD said El Niño conditions are likely to become established during the core monsoon months, raising the possibility of rainfall deficits across several states.
A below-normal monsoon could have wide-ranging economic implications. According to the agriculture ministry, nearly 51 per cent of India’s cultivated land depends directly on rainfall, contributing around 40 per cent of the country’s agricultural production.
With almost half of India’s population dependent on agriculture for livelihood, weaker rainfall may impact crop output, rural demand, and food prices.
Experts also warn that ongoing geopolitical tensions in West Asia could further complicate the situation by affecting energy supplies and fertiliser availability, both of which are critical for agricultural activity.
IMD Had Earlier Predicted Weak Monsoon
In April, the IMD had already indicated the possibility of a “below normal” monsoon, forecasting rainfall at 92 per cent of the LPA with a margin of error of plus or minus five per cent.
The latest revision to 90 per cent reflects increasing uncertainty over weather patterns as El Niño conditions evolve.
The last time India recorded below-normal monsoon rainfall was in 2023, another El Niño year, when seasonal rainfall stood at 94 per cent of the LPA.
Despite the revised outlook, meteorologists will continue to monitor oceanic and atmospheric conditions over the coming weeks for further updates on the progress of the monsoon season.
