The ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has entered its 11th day, with Tehran intensifying missile and drone attacks across the Middle East. Analysts warn that the conflict is increasingly evolving into a broader geopolitical and energy crisis.
According to strategic assessments, Iran’s military strategy appears focused on widening the conflict beyond Israel and US targets to include Gulf nations, increasing pressure on global energy markets.
Iran Uses Missiles and Drones to Sustain Pressure
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has continued launching ballistic missiles and kamikaze drones targeting US interests and allied positions in the region.
Many of the attacks reportedly involve low-cost drones, some estimated to cost around $35,000, forcing US and allied forces to deploy significantly more expensive missile defense systems to intercept them.
Among the weapons reportedly used are Shahed‑136 kamikaze drones, which Iran has produced in large numbers as part of its long-range strike capability.
Military analysts say this strategy allows Iran to impose heavy financial costs on opponents while maintaining sustained pressure.
Strait of Hormuz Closure Raises Global Energy Concerns
A major development in the conflict is Iran’s reported closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial maritime route through which roughly 20% of global oil supplies pass.
The disruption threatens to trigger a worldwide energy crisis, affecting oil shipments from Gulf producers and sending shockwaves through global energy markets.
The strategic waterway connects the Persian Gulf with international shipping routes and is considered one of the most important oil transit chokepoints in the world.
A Shift Toward “No-Contact Warfare”
The ongoing conflict is also highlighting a shift toward long-range, stand-off warfare, where adversaries rely heavily on missiles, drones, and air defense systems rather than traditional ground combat.
This approach allows countries to strike targets from long distances without direct troop engagement, creating what analysts describe as a “no-contact war.”
Such tactics depend on intelligence gathering, satellite monitoring, and precision-guided weapons rather than conventional battlefield engagements.
Strategic Pressure on Washington
Observers suggest Iran may be attempting to expand the conflict to Sunni Gulf countries to amplify economic pressure on the United States and its allies.
By disrupting energy supply chains, Tehran could increase global economic pressure on Donald Trump, potentially forcing Washington to reconsider the scale and duration of military operations.
Analysts say an engineered energy crisis could shorten the conflict while strengthening the survival prospects of Iran’s ruling establishment.
Regime Change Seen as Difficult
Despite intense air and missile strikes, Iran’s command structure appears to remain functional, continuing coordinated military operations.
Experts say that achieving regime change in Iran without deploying ground troops would be extremely challenging. Since the Iranian Revolution of 1979, the country’s political system has consolidated power through ideological mobilisation and strong security institutions.
As a result, analysts believe domestic upheaval inside Iran is unlikely in the short term, even under sustained external pressure.
