India is among the countries most vulnerable to rising extreme heat as global temperatures continue to climb, according to a new study conducted by researchers at the University of Oxford. The study warns that accelerating climate change could expose nearly half of the world’s population to dangerously high temperatures within the next few decades.
The analysis estimates that if global average temperatures increase by 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, approximately 3.79 billion people could be living under extreme heat conditions by 2050. The risks are expected to intensify even before this threshold is reached, raising concerns about preparedness and adaptation.
As the planet approaches the 1.5-degree Celsius limit set under the Paris Agreement, heat exposure is projected to rise sharply. In 2010, around 23 per cent of the global population experienced extreme heat. This figure could increase to 41 per cent in the coming years, with densely populated countries such as India facing disproportionate impacts, according to reports cited by NDTV.
India Among Most Exposed Nations
The Oxford study identifies India as one of the countries with the highest number of people exposed to extreme heat, alongside Nigeria, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and the Philippines. While some nations may experience faster rates of increase in heat exposure, India’s large population significantly heightens the scale of potential health, economic, and social consequences.
Infrastructure and Energy Challenges
Lead author Dr Jesus Lizana noted that changes in heating and cooling demand are likely to occur even before the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold is crossed, highlighting the need for earlier climate adaptation measures. The study cautions that buildings and energy systems, particularly in regions historically accustomed to cooler climates, are poorly prepared for sustained heatwaves.
The researchers warn that rising temperatures could lead to a sharp increase in demand for air conditioning, placing additional strain on energy systems and increasing emissions if not managed sustainably.
Broader Social Impacts
Dr Radhika Khosla, Associate Professor at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment and head of the Oxford Martin Future of Cooling Programme, emphasised that exceeding the 1.5-degree Celsius limit could have far-reaching consequences. These include impacts on public health, education, agriculture, migration, and livelihoods, underscoring the urgency of coordinated climate preparedness and mitigation efforts.
The study reinforces calls for governments to invest in climate-resilient infrastructure, sustainable cooling solutions, and policies that protect vulnerable populations from escalating heat risks.
