A potentially record-breaking El Niño is taking shape in the Pacific, with scientists warning that the event could become the strongest in more than a century and intensify global warming. For India, the developing climate pattern could mean further pressure on the monsoon, higher heatwave risks and disruption to agricultural output across two crop seasons.
Pacific Ocean waters are forecast to rise more than 3°C above normal, a level that would make the upcoming El Niño exceptional by modern climate-record standards. Britain’s Met Office has warned that the event could push 2027 ahead of 2024 as the hottest year ever recorded globally.
Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, described the projected event as potentially the biggest El Niño in more than a century. He noted that even a 2°C anomaly represents a major El Niño event, while the current forecast points to considerably stronger warming.
Pacific warming could reach nearly 4°C
Forecast models aggregated by the Climate Brink dashboard, using data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, indicate that the Pacific event could peak at a 3.9°C temperature anomaly in November.
Pacific sea-surface temperatures are already around 2.6°C above the rolling 30-year average, according to the report.
If the forecasts materialise, the event would surpass the intensity of the 2015-16 El Niño, which is considered the strongest in the modern record and peaked at roughly a 3°C anomaly.
Scaife said he had never seen an El Niño signal this intense in the forecasting models, while cautioning that the projections concern longer-term climate conditions rather than short-term weather.
Why El Niño matters for India
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon involving unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It can alter atmospheric circulation, winds and rainfall patterns across large parts of the world.
For India, one of its most significant effects is its tendency to weaken the southwest monsoon.
The current El Niño is already being linked to below-normal rainfall in India. The India Meteorological Department has projected seasonal rainfall at around 90% of the long-period average, which would be the lowest level in 11 years.
A weaker or uneven monsoon can have major consequences for agriculture because a substantial portion of India’s farmland remains dependent on rainfall.
India could face a double crop hit
The impact may not end with the current monsoon.
Climate expert Raghu Murtugudde said the consequences could extend from this year’s Rabi crop into 2027, with the severity depending on how the monsoon and El Niño conditions evolve.
The concern is particularly significant because farmers could face unfavourable conditions across multiple stages of the agricultural cycle.
A weaker monsoon can affect soil moisture and water availability, while unusually high temperatures during the following months can place additional stress on crops.
Murtugudde said the Rabi output could suffer and warned that heatwaves in spring 2027 could create another challenge for agriculture.
2027 could become the hottest year on record
El Niño typically has its strongest influence on global temperatures in the year after it develops. This means 2027 could be more vulnerable to extreme heat than 2026.
Met Office scientist Nick Dunstone said 2027 is very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record.
In 2024, global temperatures exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, a threshold that has become central to international climate discussions.
If the current El Niño forecast holds, its combination with the long-term warming trend could produce exceptionally high global temperatures.
Heatwaves could add to India’s agricultural stress
For India, the risk is not limited to rainfall.
Even if the monsoon does not fail completely, higher temperatures in 2027 could increase evaporation, worsen water stress and affect crop yields.
Heatwaves can be particularly damaging during sensitive stages of crop development, potentially reducing productivity even where adequate irrigation is available.
The eventual impact will depend on the strength and duration of El Niño, regional rainfall patterns and how atmospheric conditions evolve over the coming months.
Sugar and edible oil markets already under pressure
The potential agricultural impact comes at a time when India is already dealing with concerns over supplies and commodity prices.
The government has taken measures related to commodities such as sugar and edible oils, while analysts are watching the impact of weather conditions on future production.
A prolonged or intense El Niño could add another layer of uncertainty to food supply and prices if crop output is affected.
However, experts caution that the precise impact cannot yet be determined because El Niño’s influence varies between regions and agricultural seasons.
What lies ahead?
The next few months will be crucial in determining whether the forecasts of an exceptionally strong El Niño materialise.
For India, attention will centre on rainfall distribution, reservoir levels, soil moisture and crop conditions. The performance of the 2027 monsoon will also be critical in determining the longer-term agricultural impact.
The emerging picture, however, is clear: a historically strong El Niño could amplify an already warming climate and create additional weather and agricultural risks for India.
