The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected India’s GDP to grow at 6.4% in both FY 2025 and FY 2026, citing continued reform momentum, robust consumption, and strong public investment as key drivers of stable growth.
The revised forecast, published in the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook update on Tuesday, reflects a slight upward revision from April—by 0.2 percentage points for 2025 and 0.1 percentage points for 2026—due to a more favourable global environment.
Deniz Igan, Division Chief at the IMF’s Research Department, noted during a press briefing that India’s steady growth performance stems from its reform efforts and public spending. “It will be important to keep this momentum going to sustain the recent positive trajectory,” she said.
India’s growth rate for calendar year 2025 is expected to be 6.7%, slightly higher than the fiscal projection, due to timing differences in data presentation. The country recorded a 6.5% growth rate in 2024.
Looking ahead, the IMF emphasized that India’s priorities should include job creation, reskilling of agricultural labour, labour market flexibility, infrastructure investment, and removal of trade barriers. In the medium term, the fund advised continued investments in education, land reform, expansion of social safety nets, and reduction of bureaucratic hurdles for businesses.
Globally, the IMF projects economic growth at 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. Growth in emerging markets and developing economies is forecast at 4.1% and 4.0%, respectively. China’s 2025 growth outlook was revised upward to 4.8%, buoyed by reduced US-China tariffs and stronger-than-expected activity in early 2025.
Growth in advanced economies is projected at 1.5% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026, with the United States expected to grow at 1.9% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026 amid easing financial conditions and moderate tariff levels.
