Leaders from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are expected to sign a joint declaration seeking the right to hold independence referendums, potentially intensifying debate over the future of the United Kingdom.
The declaration is expected to be signed on Monday by the first ministers of the three devolved nations at a summit in Cardiff, according to a report by The Telegraph.
The move comes amid renewed discussion over Scottish independence and the possibility of a united Ireland, following recent remarks by US President Donald Trump during his visit to Dublin. Trump said he would “love” to see a united Ireland.
Andy Burnham’s ‘clear consensus’ remark
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham has also faced questions over whether his government would permit another Scottish independence referendum.
Responding to an SNP MP who raised the absence of a formal secession mechanism for Scotland compared with Northern Ireland, Burnham said a border poll in Northern Ireland is triggered when there is a clear public consensus.
He suggested the same principle could apply to Scotland.
However, Burnham later clarified that a second Scottish independence vote remains “off-limits”, saying his comments were intended to highlight that there is currently no consensus for another referendum.
Why are the leaders meeting?
The meeting comes after significant political developments across the UK’s devolved nations.
Pro-independence parties are now in power in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, according to The Telegraph. In Wales, Plaid Cymru emerged as the largest party in the Senedd following the May elections, with Rhun ap Iowerth becoming first minister.
In Scotland, the Scottish National Party (SNP) remains the dominant political force. Northern Ireland has also been led by Sinn Fein since Michelle O’Neill became first minister in 2024 following a Democratic Unionist Party walkout.
Scottish First Minister and SNP leader John Swinney, Welsh First Minister Rhun ap Iowerth and Northern Ireland First Minister Michelle O’Neill are expected to attend the Cardiff summit. They will be joined by Mary Lou McDonald, president of Sinn Fein and leader of the opposition in Ireland.
SNP sees ‘big shift’ in political landscape
Swinney has argued that Burnham’s comments indicate a significant change in Westminster’s approach to the question of Scottish independence.
He had written to Burnham seeking talks on establishing an “agreed legal mechanism” for a future Scottish referendum.
Burnham rejected the proposal, reiterating that another independence vote was not currently on the table.
Swinney, however, said the existing political arrangement was “not sustainable”, arguing that the presence of pro-independence leaders across Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland showed a changing political landscape.
The planned declaration could therefore add fresh momentum to discussions over self-determination and the constitutional future of the United Kingdom.
