Odisha could see another spell of unsettled weather during the Durga Puja period as a cyclonic circulation may develop over the North Andaman Sea around October 12, potentially leading to the formation of a low-pressure area around October 13.
The system is still at an extended-range forecast stage, and there is no confirmation that it will intensify into a cyclone. Its eventual strength, movement and impact on Odisha will become clearer as it develops and enters the medium-range forecast, according to the latest weather outlook.
Low-Pressure System Possible Around October 13
According to the India Meteorological Department’s extended-range forecast, an upper-air cyclonic circulation is likely to form over the North Andaman Sea around October 12.
The circulation may subsequently lead to the formation of a low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal. The system’s further development and movement will depend on atmospheric conditions closer to the time of formation.
Recent reports citing the IMD’s extended-range guidance have indicated a possibility of the system moving towards the Andhra-Odisha coast and bringing rainfall to parts of the state during the festive period. However, the forecast remains subject to change.
No Cyclone Confirmation Yet
The possibility of a low-pressure area does not mean that a cyclone is certain to form.
Weather systems over the Bay of Bengal can strengthen, weaken or change track depending on oceanic and atmospheric conditions. At this stage, therefore, the system should be viewed as a potential low-pressure development rather than a confirmed cyclone threat.
The IMD’s current Odisha warning bulletin issued on October 4 has no warning for October 4 and 5. Thunderstorm and lightning activity is indicated for October 6 and 7, with no warning listed for October 8-10.
Rain May Affect Durga Puja
The potential system has raised concerns about rainfall during the festive period, particularly if it develops and moves closer to the Odisha coast.
The latest extended-range assessment suggests that some parts of Odisha could receive rainfall as the system evolves. However, the location, intensity and duration of any rainfall will depend on the system’s eventual track.
Odisha is also expected to begin experiencing southwest monsoon withdrawal next week, according to the Bhubaneswar Meteorological Centre.
Weather Remains Uncertain
For now, residents need not treat the developing system as a confirmed cyclone threat.
The weather situation will be monitored closely as the proposed circulation emerges over the Andaman Sea. A clearer assessment of whether it develops into a significant low-pressure system, depression or stronger storm is expected closer to October 12-15.
The IMD has also indicated that the state is likely to remain largely dry over the next couple of days, with isolated light to moderate rain possible in some districts thereafter.
