A monsoon system that formed over the north Andaman Sea is now marching toward the Odisha coast — and the India Meteorological Department says it will not stay a weak low for long.
The low-pressure area, first spotted on Saturday evening, had by Sunday morning moved west-northwest and lay over the east-central Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Andaman Sea. IMD forecasts it will intensify into a depression over the east-central Bay on Monday, September 21, and into a deep depression over the west-central Bay on Tuesday, September 22. Continuing on the same track, it is expected to reach the west-central and adjoining northwest Bay near the north Andhra Pradesh–south Odisha coasts around Wednesday morning, September 23.
That timeline matters on land. Meteorologists say rainfall intensity will rise from Tuesday morning and stay high for at least four days. Isolated extremely heavy rain is likely over south Odisha and north coastal Andhra Pradesh on September 23 and 24, with widespread heavy to very heavy showers across large parts of the state through September 25.
Will it become a cyclone?
Not yet, according to the official forecast. IMD has not issued a cyclonic storm warning. Some numerical models still flag conditions over the Andaman Sea and Bay as favourable for further intensification, but weather officials say the more probable outcome, for now, is a deep depression. That is already enough to dump dangerous rain over hills, river catchments and low-lying coastal belts.
Where the alerts are strongest
Warnings have been upgraded as the system has organised. Heavy rain is expected to bite first in southern and interior Odisha, then spread along the coast.
Orange and yellow alerts cover a long list of districts, including Koraput, Malkangiri, Rayagada, Ganjam, Gajapati, Puri, Khordha, Nayagarh, Cuttack, Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapara, Jajpur, Bhadrak, Balasore, Keonjhar and Mayurbhanj. Later bulletins have also flagged red-level risk of extremely heavy rain in pockets of Kandhamal, Gajapati, Ganjam, Puri, Kalahandi and Rayagada between September 23 and 25. Residents in those districts should treat the next five days as a flood-and-landslide watch, not a routine late-monsoon shower.
Thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds of 40–60 kmph will accompany the rain, especially over coastal and northern districts in the first 48 hours.
Sea and fishermen
The Bay will turn rough to very rough. Squally winds of 50–65 kmph, gusting higher, are likely over the central and northwest Bay through September 24. IMD has advised fishermen not to venture into the east-central and northeast Bay through September 22, and to stay off the west-central Bay and the Andhra–Odisha–West Bengal coasts from September 22 to 24. Boats still at sea have been told to return by Monday evening.
What people should do now
The danger is not only wind. Prolonged very heavy rain can trigger flash floods, waterlogging in cities such as Berhampur, Puri and Bhubaneswar, landslips in Koraput–Rayagada–Kandhamal, and sudden rises in small rivers and drains. Officials have already asked district collectors to stay on alert.
Keep windows secured, avoid travel through ghats and low-lying stretches, stay off the sea, and follow only official IMD and OSDMA updates. The system is still over water. Its exact landfall intensity can change. What will not change easily is the rain: from Tuesday through Friday, much of Odisha should expect a wet, disruptive spell.
