India has reached a significant demographic milestone, with the country’s fertility rate falling below the replacement level for the first time, according to the latest Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2024 released by the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner.
The report indicates that India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has dropped below the replacement benchmark of 2.1 children per woman, marking a major shift in population trends across the country.
What Does the Decline in Fertility Rate Mean?
The Total Fertility Rate measures the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her lifetime.
A fertility rate of 2.1 is generally considered the replacement level, meaning each generation is large enough to replace itself without causing population growth or decline.
With India’s fertility rate now below this threshold, experts believe the country will continue to grow for several more decades due to its large young population. However, population growth is expected to slow significantly before eventually stabilising and declining.
India Remains the World’s Most Populous Country
India’s population has grown dramatically over the past seven decades.
- Population in 1950: Approximately 360 million
- Population in 2026: Around 1.45 billion
India surpassed China in 2023 to become the world’s most populous country and continues to add millions of people every year.
Despite this growth, declining fertility rates suggest that long-term demographic patterns are changing rapidly.
Population Not Declining Yet, But Growth Will Slow
Experts emphasise that India’s population is not shrinking at present.
Population momentum created by a large working-age population means overall numbers will continue to increase for some time.
However, if fertility remains below replacement level for an extended period, population growth will eventually slow and could begin to decline later this century.
Researchers from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington estimate that India’s population could peak within the next two decades before entering a gradual decline.
Some projections suggest India’s population may fall to just over one billion by 2100.
Bihar Records Highest Fertility Rate
The report highlights significant differences among states.
States with Highest Fertility Rates
- Bihar – 2.9
- Uttar Pradesh – 2.6
- Madhya Pradesh – 2.4
- Rajasthan – 2.3
These states remain above the replacement level and continue to contribute significantly to population growth.
Delhi Records Lowest Fertility Rate
At the other end of the spectrum, several states and Union Territories have fertility rates comparable to developed countries.
States and Regions with Lowest Fertility Rates
- Delhi – 1.2
- Tamil Nadu – 1.3
- Kerala – 1.3
- West Bengal – 1.3
- Andhra Pradesh – 1.4
- Maharashtra – 1.4
- Punjab – 1.4
- Karnataka – 1.5
- Telangana – 1.5
- Himachal Pradesh – 1.5
Delhi’s fertility rate of 1.2 is lower than that of several European countries.
Why Are Indian Families Having Fewer Children?
Experts point to multiple social and economic factors behind the decline.
Rising Educational Aspirations
Parents are increasingly investing more resources in fewer children. Many families prefer smaller households so they can provide better education, coaching and opportunities.
Growth of Nuclear Families
Urbanisation and changing lifestyles have led to a decline in joint family structures.
Today, a large majority of Indian households are nuclear families, increasing the financial and emotional responsibility of raising children.
Changing Social Attitudes
Smaller families are increasingly viewed as desirable.
Greater access to education, media, technology and healthcare has influenced family planning decisions across urban and rural India.
Elon Musk Reacts to India’s Fertility Trend
Tech entrepreneur Elon Musk also commented on India’s declining birth rate after reports highlighted the development.
Musk noted that fertility among highly educated Indians had already fallen below replacement levels several years ago, reflecting a broader global trend of declining birth rates.
A New Demographic Era
The latest fertility data marks a turning point in India’s demographic journey.
While population growth will continue in the near future, the country is entering a phase where ageing, workforce planning, healthcare infrastructure and economic productivity will become increasingly important policy priorities.
For decades, India’s biggest demographic challenge was managing rapid population growth. The new challenge may be preparing for a future where population growth slows and eventually declines.
