The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted the possibility of a low-pressure area or upper-air cyclonic circulation forming over the Bay of Bengal during the second week of May.
The agency noted that the probability of cyclogenesis, or the development of a depression or cyclone, remains low.
According to IMD’s North Indian Ocean Extended Range Outlook for Cyclogenesis issued on May 7, favourable conditions may emerge over the southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining west-central and southeast regions between May 8 and May 14.
Meteorologists highlighted that large-scale environmental features, climatological factors, and model guidance point toward the likelihood of a circulation or low-pressure system. However, the outlook classified the probability of cyclogenesis as “low,” meaning there is only a 1 to 33 per cent chance of intensification into a depression or cyclone.
The forecast specifically mentioned the period between May 13 and May 16 as the window when such a system may develop over the southwest and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal.
IMD clarified that Week 1 covers May 8 to May 14, while Week 2 extends from May 15 to May 21. The Bay of Bengal typically witnesses pre-monsoon weather systems, and experts continue to monitor the region closely for further developments.
