The 2026 Assembly elections have reached a critical juncture with the release of exit poll data. As polling concludes, early projections suggest a landscape of potential political upsets, the rise of new regional forces, and the possible end of long-standing incumbencies.
With results scheduled for May 4, these charts and data points offer a glimpse into the possible future of five key states and union territories.
West Bengal: A High-Stakes Hung Assembly?
After 15 years of Trinamool Congress (TMC) rule, exit polls suggest West Bengal is heading toward a photo finish. The battle between Mamata Banerjee’s TMC and the BJP has intensified, with most pollsters predicting a hung assembly.
- P-MARQ Projections: BJP leading with 150–175 seats; TMC at 118–138 seats.
- P-Matrize Projections: BJP at 146–161 seats; TMC at 125–140 seats.
- The Consensus: The BJP has transitioned from a marginal player to a primary challenger, while the TMC maintains a deep-rooted, competitive base.
Tamil Nadu: The Rise of TVK and Actor Vijay
The political duopoly of the DMK and AIADMK faces a historic challenge from actor-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK). While some polls favor the DMK, others suggest a seismic shift.
- Axis My India: Predicts TVK as the single largest party with 98–120 seats, potentially making Vijay the next Chief Minister.
- DMK Resilience: Other pollsters like People’s Pulse and Matrize still place the DMK-led alliance in the lead with 122–145 seats.
- The X-Factor: TVK’s debut performance could fundamentally redistribute the traditional vote share in the state’s 234 seats.
Kerala and Assam: Divergent Paths
In Kerala, the CPM-led LDF faces a strong challenge from the UDF. Historically, Kerala alternates power, and current projections suggest the UDF may reclaim the state with an estimated 72–85 seats, potentially ending the Left’s last remaining stronghold in India.
In Assam, the BJP appears set for a “hat-trick” victory. Projections from Axis My India and Matrize suggest a commanding lead for the saffron party, with 85–100 seats in the 126-member assembly, significantly ahead of the Congress.
Puducherry: Stability for the NDA
The Union Territory of Puducherry shows the clearest trend, with the NDA (AINRC-BJP alliance) expected to retain power.
- Projected Seats: 16–20 seats out of 30.
- Leadership: N. Rangasamy remains the preferred choice for Chief Minister with 42% support.
