The Bay of Bengal is once again churning up hostile weather, prompting regional authorities and coastal communities to stay on high alert.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), a freshly formed low-pressure area over the east-central and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal is steadily gathering steam and is projected to escalate into a full-blown cyclonic storm by the morning of October 26.
Step-by-Step Intensification Timeline
The weather system, which took shape at 5:30 AM, is expected to follow a calculated trajectory across warm oceanic waters:
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October 24: The system is forecast to persist over the same region and intensify into a standard depression.
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October 25: Moving steadily west-northwestward, it will likely strengthen further into a deep depression.
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October 26: By the morning, the system is expected to cross the threshold into a formal cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay of Bengal.
Following this rapid evolution, the system will continue tracking west-northwestwards, directly threatening the north Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha coasts over the subsequent two days.
Weather Models Clash Over Final Intensity
While meteorologists agree on the general path and timeline, a fascinating discrepancy has emerged regarding how severe the storm will ultimately become.
Traditional numerical weather prediction models—including the ECMWF, ECAI, and NCEP GFS—suggest a high-end threat, indicating the system could potentially intensify all the way up to the very severe cyclonic storm category. Conversely, advanced artificial intelligence-based models, such as Mithuna alongside the IMD’s own FGN and FCN frameworks, project a more moderate trajectory, capping its peak power at the standard cyclonic storm category.
As meteorological assessments and continuous satellite tracking progress, coastal residents across Andhra Pradesh and Odisha are urged to keep a close eye on official advisories as the final intensity and precise landfall details crystallise.
