With the sowing season just months away, Indian farmers are already feeling the pinch. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday issued its first long-range forecast for the 2026 southwest monsoon (June–September), predicting rainfall at just 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
That’s firmly in the “below normal” category and well below last year’s generous 108% deluge.
The LPA, calculated from 1971–2020 data, stands at 87 cm. Anything below 96% is officially classified as deficient. With a model error margin of ±5%, the actual rainfall could swing between 87% and 97% of normal – still pointing to a drier-than-usual season.
The culprit? A shifting El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). While neutral conditions are likely from April to June, the IMD warns that El Niño – notorious for suppressing Indian rainfall – could strengthen during the core monsoon months. Most parts of the country are expected to receive below-normal showers, with only pockets in the Northeast, Northwest, and southern peninsular India likely to see normal or above-normal rain.
For rain-dependent states like Odisha, the outlook is particularly worrying. Paddy, pulses, and other kharif crops that feed millions could suffer, potentially driving up food prices and squeezing farmers’ incomes. The ripple effects will hit water resources, rural economies, and even national food security.
Government officials and agriculture experts are already sounding the alarm. They are urging farmers to switch to drought-resistant crop varieties, adopt water-conservation techniques, and improve irrigation efficiency. “Preparation now can reduce losses later,” one senior agronomist noted.
After the bumper 2025 monsoon, this year’s forecast has caught many off guard. Yet meteorologists stress that timely action – from rainwater harvesting to crop diversification – can help farmers weather the challenge.
As the mercury rises and fields wait for the first rains, one thing is clear: 2026 will test India’s agricultural resilience like never before.
