Cyclone ‘Arnab’ has undergone significant intensification over the West-Central Bay of Bengal since yesterday, with sustained wind speeds surging from 120 km/h to 167 km/h, according to Warning No. 005 issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC).
Analysis by renowned agricultural meteorologist Prof. Surendranath Pasupalak indicates that while the core of the cyclone is projected to make landfall along the Andhra Pradesh coast, southern Odisha districts remain in proximity to the storm’s outer wind radius and post-landfall trajectory.
Current Position & Rapid Strengthening
As of 5:30 AM on Oct 27, 2026, Cyclone Arnab was centred near latitude 16.0°N and longitude 84.8°E—approximately 252 km southeast of Visakhapatnam and 294 km east-southeast of Kakinada.
- Current Speed: Moving westward at 19 km/h.
- Central Pressure: 968 hPa.
- Peak Strength Forecast: The storm is expected to intensify further by Tuesday evening (Oct 27), reaching sustained wind speeds of 185 km/h with gusts up to 231 km/h over the sea.
Landfall Timeline & Projected Track
According to the JTWC forecast, Cyclone Arnab will alter its track slightly before reaching land:
- Landfall Location: The Konaseema–Yanam coast, south of Kakinada, Andhra Pradesh.
- Timing: Early morning of Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026.
- Landfall Intensity: Sustained winds near the storm centre are predicted at 176 km/h (gusting to 213 km/h) at around 5:30 AM on Oct 28.
- Post-Landfall Path: After crossing the coast, the cyclone will move northward across Andhra Pradesh toward southern Chhattisgarh (near Chintoor, Chhattisgarh central belt, and Malkangiri-Sukma border) while weakening rapidly into a deep depression and low-pressure system by Oct 29.
Wind Speed Forecast Table (JTWC Data)
| Date & Time | Location (Approx. Position) | Sustained Wind (km/h) | Gusts (km/h) |
| Oct 27, 05:30 IST | Sea off ESE of Kakinada | 167 | 204 |
| Oct 27, 17:30 IST | Sea off the east of Kakinada | 185 | 231 |
| Oct 28, 05:30 IST | Near Konaseema–Yanam Coast (Landfall) | 176 | 213 |
| Oct 28, 17:30 IST | Near Chintoor, Andhra Pradesh | 130 | 157 |
| Oct 29, 05:30 IST | Near Malkangiri–Sukma Border | 65 | 83 |
| Oct 29, 17:30 IST | Central Chhattisgarh | 46 | 65 |
Potential Impact on Odisha Districts
Although the cyclone centre is not expected to pass directly over Odisha, several districts will feel its peripheral and post-landfall effects:
1. Pre-Landfall Phase (Oct 27 – Oct 28)
- Ganjam: Situated closest to the outer wind band of the cyclone over the ocean, making it vulnerable to strong squally winds and severe coastal waves.
- Puri, Khurdha & Gajapati: Located outside the primary sea-surface wind radius (>119 km/h band), but will experience heavy cloud cover and intermittent downpours.
2. Post-Landfall Phase (Oct 28 – Oct 29)
- Malkangiri: Positioned closest to the storm’s inland path as it weakens over the Andhra-Odisha border, high probability of squally winds (up to 65–83 km/h) and torrential rain.
- Koraput, Nabarangpur & Kalahandi: Likely to experience peripheral wind effects and heavy rainfall as the system dissipates inland.
- Rayagada & Nuapada: Situated further east/north of the track, experiencing moderate wind conditions alongside rain spells.
Prof. Pasupalak emphasised that while current models rule out direct landfall in Odisha, the proximity of Ganjam before landfall and Malkangiri, Koraput, and Nabarangpur after landfall requires high vigilance. Weather models are being continuously monitored for further shifts in track or intensity.
