India may witness a weaker-than-expected monsoon this year as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has revised its 2026 southwest monsoon forecast downward to 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
The updated projection raises fresh concerns for agriculture, water availability, and heatwave conditions across several parts of the country.
The revised forecast is lower than the IMD’s earlier estimate of 92% issued in April, indicating a likely “below normal” monsoon season.
According to the IMD, weak El Niño conditions are expected to develop in June and may strengthen during the second half of the monsoon season. El Niño is often associated with reduced rainfall and hotter temperatures in India.
Officials said below-normal rainfall is likely over central India, northwest India, and parts of south peninsular India. However, northeast India could receive near-normal rainfall during the season.
The weather agency also highlighted that rainfall over the monsoon core zone — a region heavily dependent on rain-fed farming — is expected to remain below normal.
Hotter June Ahead With More Heatwave Days
Alongside weaker rainfall projections, the IMD has warned of an unusually hot June across many states.
Above-normal heatwave days are expected in:
- Odisha
- Uttar Pradesh
- Bihar
- Haryana
- Punjab
- Gujarat
- Andhra Pradesh
- Chhattisgarh
Some regions may experience five to six heatwave days during June, compared to the usual average of three days.
The IMD advised state governments and local administrations to strengthen preparedness measures, including access to drinking water, cooling shelters, and emergency healthcare support.
Delay in Kerala Monsoon Onset
The monsoon has not yet officially reached Kerala, despite the usual onset date being around June 1.
According to IMD scientists, two major weather systems are currently affecting the monsoon’s progress:
- A typhoon developing over the West Pacific, which is drawing moisture away from the Indian region.
- A cyclonic circulation near Lakshadweep, limiting rainfall activity over Kerala.
Meteorologists expect rainfall activity to improve gradually after June 11.
Why the Monsoon Matters for India
The southwest monsoon plays a critical role in India’s economy and daily life. Nearly half of the country’s net-sown agricultural land lacks irrigation facilities and depends heavily on seasonal rainfall.
The monsoon also replenishes reservoirs that support:
- Drinking water supply
- Electricity generation
- Industrial activity
- Farming operations
With rising temperatures and below-normal rainfall predicted, authorities are expected to closely monitor weather developments and issue regular advisories throughout the season.
The IMD’s revised forecast signals a challenging monsoon season for India in 2026. With El Niño conditions emerging, below-normal rainfall and stronger heatwaves may impact agriculture, water resources, and public health across multiple states.
Officials have urged people to stay updated with weather alerts, avoid prolonged heat exposure, and follow precautionary measures during peak summer conditions.
