Indian stock markets witnessed a sharp decline in early trade on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a steep 50% tariff on Indian exports, heightening concerns over a potential trade standoff between the two nations.
The BSE Sensex opened 335.71 points lower at 80,208.28, while the NSE Nifty dropped 114.15 points to 24,460.05, reflecting widespread investor unease. The tariff hike, which effectively doubles the existing levy from 25%, places India among the highest-taxed U.S. trading partners.
The move comes amid growing global trade tensions and signals a significant shift in Washington’s economic posture toward New Delhi. While the Indian currency showed signs of stability—with one-month dollar-rupee non-deliverable forwards indicating a flat opening—the broader market sentiment remained cautious.
Economic Impact and Expert Reactions
Experts warn that the escalating tariff battle could have tangible macroeconomic consequences. “If these tariffs remain for a year, we estimate a 30 to 40 basis point drag on India’s GDP growth,” said Dhiraj Relli, CEO of HDFC Securities.
Before the tariff escalation, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had retained its GDP growth forecast for FY25 at 6.5%, citing resilience against global headwinds. However, the new development may force a policy recalibration if trade tensions persist.
“Doubling of tariffs, especially amid already strained ties, could severely dent investor confidence and bring volatility back into the markets,” said Nilesh Shah, CEO of Kotak Mahindra Asset Management.
Global Markets and Sectoral Trends
Despite the tensions, Asian equities traded higher on Thursday, buoyed by exemptions announced for companies like Apple Inc., which have pledged new investments in the U.S. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index rose 0.8%, and U.S. stock futures also edged up, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures gaining 0.3% each.
Chipmakers rallied globally after Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs on semiconductor exports came with carve-outs. Taiwan Semiconductor surged 4.4%, Samsung Electronics gained 1.9%, and Nvidia advanced in after-hours trading.
Meanwhile, oil prices rose slightly, reversing a five-day losing streak, as traders monitored U.S. efforts to penalize buyers of Russian crude. 10-year U.S. Treasury yields also climbed two basis points to 4.25%.
Looking Ahead
Market participants now await further policy signals from both the Indian and U.S. governments. The RBI’s upcoming commentary and potential diplomatic outreach from New Delhi will be closely watched in the days ahead.
