Pakistan is facing a potential production bottleneck as international interest in its China-developed JF-17 Thunder fighter jets rises sharply, raising questions about whether the country can scale up manufacturing to meet growing demand.
According to Pakistan’s armed forces, at least five countries have sought information or expressed interest in acquiring the JF-17 in recent months. The surge follows Pakistan’s claims that the aircraft performed effectively during the May 2025 conflict with India, boosting its visibility in the global defence market.
Rising Interest From Multiple Countries
Iraq, Bangladesh and Indonesia have shown interest in the lightweight, all-weather fighter, while Saudi Arabia and Libya are also reportedly exploring potential purchases, according to Reuters.
However, Pakistan currently produces fewer than 20 JF-17 aircraft annually, with the majority allocated to its own air force. Defence analysts say this limited capacity could strain Islamabad’s ambitions to position itself as a competitive arms exporter and expand China’s influence in the global weapons market.
Affordable Alternative to Western Jets
The JF-17 is increasingly viewed as a cost-effective alternative to Western fighter jets. Pakistan’s Minister for Defence Production, Raza Hayat Harraj, recently said each aircraft costs between $40 million and $50 million, depending on configuration. By comparison, Western platforms such as the Rafale or F-16 can exceed $100 million per unit.
“The JF-17 is seen as a market disruptor due to its affordable price and recent combat exposure,” said Manoj Harjani, a research fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. He added that the aircraft could appeal to air forces unable to afford high-end Western fighters.
Shift in Traditional Defence Partnerships
If countries such as Indonesia or Saudi Arabia proceed with purchases, it would mark a significant shift away from their long-standing reliance on US and European aircraft. Indonesia recently inducted French Rafale jets and signed a deal for Boeing F-15s, while Saudi Arabia continues to depend heavily on Western platforms and has sought access to F-35 fighters.
Limited Production Capacity
The JF-17 was conceived under a 1999 joint agreement between the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) in Kamra and China’s AVIC Chengdu Aircraft. Pakistan handles about 58% of production, including final assembly, while China supplies avionics and accounts for the remaining 42%.
Former Pakistan Air Force officials say the current production rate of 16–18 jets per year is just sufficient to meet domestic needs.
“So far, production has been aligned only with Pakistan’s requirements,” said former Air Vice Marshal Faaiz Amir, noting that export capacity was never built in anticipation of large foreign orders.
Export Orders and Replacement Needs
So far, the JF-17 has been exported to Myanmar, Nigeria and Azerbaijan, with Azerbaijan ordering 40 jets in 2024 in a deal valued at around $1.6 billion. Pakistan also has 45 export orders pending, while its own air force still needs to replace over 250 ageing aircraft, including Mirage and F-7 fighters.
Funding and Supply Chain Challenges
Experts warn that expanding production would require significant capital investment, which Pakistan may struggle to secure.
“I don’t see any actor currently willing to fund a large expansion of production lines,” said Sameer Lalwani of the German Marshall Fund. Without investment, delivery timelines could stretch for years, reducing the aircraft’s competitiveness.
Supply chain issues could also pose challenges. The JF-17 uses Russian-made Klimov engines, and sanctions related to the Ukraine war could complicate procurement.
China’s Role Remains Crucial
Because the aircraft is jointly produced, export deals require approval from both China and Pakistan. Chinese defence firms showcased the JF-17 at the Singapore Airshow, signalling Beijing’s interest in expanding overseas sales.
The latest Block III variant, classified as a 4.5-generation fighter, features advanced avionics, AESA radar, and multi-role combat capabilities.
Strategic Implications
While Pakistan has never been a major global arms supplier, analysts say rising interest in the JF-17 could represent a significant milestone—provided production and supply challenges are addressed.
“This is a big achievement,” said former Air Marshal Asim Suleiman, who was involved in the project. “It shows how far the programme has come.”
