The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has officially announced the onset of the southwest monsoon, marking an early start to India’s rainy season. The monsoon has already advanced over the south Bay of Bengal, Nicobar Islands, south Andaman Sea, and parts of the north Andaman Sea.
Amid the monsoon’s early progress, meteorologists are closely monitoring a developing low-pressure area in the east-central Bay of Bengal, expected to form between May 16 and 22. Forecast models suggest this system may intensify into a cyclonic storm between May 23 and 28, potentially to be named Cyclone Shakti.
If it materialises, coastal regions of Odisha and West Bengal in India, as well as Khulna and Chattogram in Bangladesh, may be affected. However, the exact path and strength of the cyclone remain uncertain at this stage, and the IMD has yet to issue a formal cyclone alert.
Cyclonic Circulations and Weather Alerts Across India
Multiple upper air cyclonic circulations are active across India:
-
Over the Andaman Sea, extending from 1.5 km to 7.6 km altitude.
-
Over northwest Uttar Pradesh, West Rajasthan, and northeast Assam, increasing the likelihood of rain and thunderstorms in these regions.
IMD Issues Regional Weather Warnings
-
Karnataka: Yellow alert for rainfall and thunderstorms until May 16.
-
Odisha: Likely to experience gusty winds (40–50 kmph) and high humidity, especially in Bhubaneswar.
-
West Bengal: Kolkata is expected to have partly cloudy skies, with possible thunderstorms and moderate rain in the evenings.
-
Northern and Central India: Rainfall is expected in Himachal Pradesh, Delhi, Haryana, East Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh between May 16–17.
-
Western India: Parts of Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Konkan & Goa are forecast to receive pre-monsoon showers.
-
Northeast India: Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, and Meghalaya may see heavy to very heavy rainfall through mid-May.
