The results of the Nuapada assembly by-election are set to create a new dynamic in Odisha politics in the new year. A new political platform is being planned as an alternative to the two main opposition parties, BJD and Congress, with strategies to create new leaders aimed at splitting opposition votes.
Despite the BJP forming its first government in Odisha in the 2024 general elections, the Nuapada by-election outcome has not fully satisfied the party’s central leadership. The BJD, which has traditionally shown a soft stance towards the BJP and stood by it during crises, slipping to third place while Congress secured second, has become a cause for concern among central BJP leaders. The rise of Congress has dampened the BJP’s victory celebrations.
At the national level, the BJP and Congress are ideological rivals locked in direct competition. Central BJP leaders do not want Congress to become strong in Odisha at the expense ofthe BJD. Since Naveen Patnaik and his BJD have always extended cooperation, the central leadership is not in favour of fighting them to strengthen Congress. This has paved the way for creating a new alternative platform.
By engineering splits in both BJD and Congress and bringing together disgruntled leaders, a new political arena will be formed in the new year as an alternative front. Positioned as a regional party prioritising the interests of Odia people, this platform will publicly present itself as opposed to the BJP government. However, internally, it will advance with indirect support and cooperation from the BJP or NDA.
Political manoeuvring on this is intensifying, with the blueprint being finalised in Delhi. Several leaders are being summoned to the national capital.
Both BJP and BJD leaders want Congress to never become the main opposition party in Odisha under any circumstances. While the BJP is in power, they prefer the BJD to remain the primary opposition and Congress to stay weak – this is what Delhi leaders desire. Based on this, efforts are being ramped up to split Congress and unite disgruntled BJD leaders on one platform to create a separate political entity.
Those who previously distanced themselves from BJD are emerging as key figures this time. Under the banner of a third alternative and the slogan of Odisha’s pride, this new front is expected to emerge. It is tentatively scheduled for announcement by mid-2026.
According to political analysts, the vote-splitting strategy that the BJP has adopted in several other Indian states is now being implemented in Odisha at the central level. It may involve including a family member of BJD leadership, Naveen Patnaik, possibly his nephew Arun Patnaik, to helm the next phase of BJD. Similarly, by dividing Congress and bringing together dissatisfied and sidelined leaders, a separate political group or force will be created. This will split opposition votes, allowing BJP votes to remain consolidated.
The upcoming Rajya Sabha elections in April next year are being awaited for this purpose. Dissension is already brewing in Congress, while major discontent is expected in the BJD over Rajya Sabha nominations in April. Using this discontent as a base, new leadership for the alternative front will be created.
The core objective of this strategy is to divert minority votes and OBC votes in Odisha away from BJD and Congress. This will serve as a new weapon in politics through the alternative platform.
Post-2024 elections, the BJD effectively operates with two factions. Similarly, in Congress, two major groups have formed around PCC president Bhakta Das. Anti-Pandian elements in BJD and anti-Bhakta elements in Congress are the target groups for this new political strategy.
Although leaders involved or in contact with Delhi are reluctant to come forward now, they respond with a sly smile, saying, “wait and watch.”
