New Delhi: Narendra Modi govt’s approval for the construction of two nuclear-powered attack submarines this month indicates India’s preference for sub-surface deterrence over a third aircraft carrier, which is more susceptible to Chinese long-range missiles.
The focus on sub-surface deterrence is justified, considering the consistent presence of at least 10 Chinese warships, including ballistic missile trackers and surveillance vessels, in the Indian Ocean Region monthly since 2023. Currently, the Chinese surveillance ship Xiang Yang Hong 3 is stationed off the coast of Chennai in the southern Bay of Bengal, and the ballistic missile tracker Yuan Wang 7 is positioned off the coast of Mauritius. Typically, seven to eight PLA Navy warships and three to four quasi-military ships are observed in the Indian Ocean Region, with expectations of an increase as the PLA plans extended patrols for its carrier-based task forces.
In response to the growing Chinese naval activity in the IOR, India’s national security planners have opted for nuclear submarines to deter and monitor PLA movements, especially in the southern Indian Ocean. India already operates two nuclear ballistic missile submarines in the Indo-Pacific, and the third, INS Aridhaman, is set to be commissioned the following year. Except for the first of its class, INS Arihant, which is equipped with K-15 nuclear ballistic missiles with a range of only 750 kilometres, the subsequent submarines are armed with a combination of K-15 and K-4 nuclear ballistic missiles, the latter having a range of 3500 kilometres.
Regarding the nuclear-powered attack submarine sector, the Indian Navy is expected to acquire a second Akula-class nuclear attack submarine on lease from Russia by 2028 at the latest. The Akula lease project has experienced delays due to the Russian conflict in Ukraine, but the Indian Navy is exerting pressure on Moscow to deliver the SSN by the end of 2027.
The authorization of two SSNs for the Indian Navy indicates a shift in India’s strategic priorities, with Pakistan no longer being the primary adversary. Instead, the principal military threat on both land and sea emanates from China. The Chinese incursion in eastern Ladakh in May 2020 has compelled Indian security strategists to consider maritime deterrence options, as the majority of trade to East and North Asia passes near the coasts of Lakshadweep and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Although the Modi administration has opted for three additional advanced Kalvari (Scorpene) class submarines, these diesel-powered attack submarines are intended to counter regional threats and position Mazagon Dockyards Limited as a centre for exporting Scorpene-class submarines to other countries, in partnership with France.
From the aforementioned points, it is clear that the Indian Navy’s future is anchored in nuclear capabilities, especially in light of the challenges posed by China and its affiliates in the Indo-Pacific region.