London: A warming El Nino event may develop in the coming months, according to a new update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
The El Nino event may develop after three consecutive years of an unusually stubborn and protracted La Nina, which influenced temperature and rainfall patterns in different parts of the world, WMO said in a statement.
However, while the return of El Nino is considered likely this will be proceeded by a period of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions, with 90 per cent probability, during March-May, the statement said.
The likelihood of ENSO neutral conditions continuing beyond May decreases slightly but remains high, with 80 per cent likelihood in April-June and 60 per cent in May-July, based on the model predictions and assessment from experts involved in producing the Update, it said.
The chances of El Nino developing, while low in the first half of the year, 15 per cent in April-June, gradually increases to 35 per cent in May-July, the statement said.
Long-lead forecasts for June-August indicate a much higher chance, 55 per cent, of El Nino developing but are subject to high uncertainty associated with predictions this time of the year, the so-called spring predictability barrier, it said.
“The first triple-dip La Nina of the 21st century is finally coming to an end. La Nina’s cooling effect put a temporary brake on rising global temperatures, even though the past eight year period was the warmest on record,” said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.
“If we do now enter an El Nino phase, this is likely to fuel another spike in global temperatures,” said Mr Taalas.
The year 2016 is currently the warmest on record because of the combination of El Nino and climate change.
There is a 93 percent likelihood of at least one year until 2026 being the warmest on record. There is also a 50:50 chance of the global temperature temporarily reaching 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial era, according to a study last year by the UK’s Met Office, which is WMO’s lead centre for annual to decadal climate predictions.
