According to forecasts from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and the Bangladesh Meteorological Department, a cyclonic circulation is likely to form over the Bay of Bengal between May 17 and 20, 2025, with the potential to intensify into a cyclone named ‘Shakti’ by May 27.
This developing weather system has raised concerns among coastal communities in Odisha and Bangladesh, with memories of past devastations from cyclones like Fani (2019), Amphan (2020), and Yaas (2021) still fresh in the region.
Formation and Forecast
The IMD’s initial assessment indicates that favourable oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the Bay of Bengal could support the development of a cyclonic circulation into a low-pressure system by May 24. This system is expected to further intensify into a depression and potentially evolve into Cyclone ‘Shakti’ by May 27.
The cyclone is likely to move northward, with current models suggesting a higher probability of landfall along the Bangladesh coast, though Odisha’s coastal districts remain at risk of indirect impacts.
According to the IMD, the advancement of the southwest monsoon is contributing to conducive weather conditions for cyclone formation. May is historically a cyclone-prone month for Odisha, with warm sea surface temperatures and atmospheric dynamics often fueling such systems.
International weather models, including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Windy, align with the IMD’s projections, indicating that Cyclone Shakti is more likely to make landfall in Bangladesh. However, Odisha’s coastal areas could still experience heavy rainfall and gusty winds.
Potential Impact on Odisha
While the cyclone’s primary impact is expected to be on Bangladesh, Odisha’s coastal districts—Balasore, Bhadrak, Kendrapara, Jagatsinghpur, Puri, Ganjam, and Khordha—may face moderate effects. The IMD predicts light to moderate rainfall and winds of 40-60 kmph in these areas between May 24 and 27.
Odisha’s history with May cyclones has heightened local concerns. Cyclone Fani, which struck Puri in May 2019, caused widespread destruction, while Amphan and Yaas left lasting impacts on infrastructure and livelihoods.
While the cyclone’s exact path and intensity will become clearer after the low-pressure system forms, weather agencies emphasise the need for caution.
Looking Ahead
As the Bay of Bengal braces for Cyclone Shakti, Odisha’s residents are no strangers to the challenges posed by such weather events. While the state’s disaster preparedness has improved significantly, the unpredictability of cyclones demands constant vigilance.
With forecasts suggesting a stronger impact on Bangladesh, regional cooperation between India and Bangladesh will be crucial for an effective response and recovery.
