Election Predictions By Pragativadi: The Unblemished Record Continues


Now it’s curtains for the biggest democratic carnival on the planet. After almost two-month-long elections in as many as seven phases across the country and four phases in the state of Odisha, the results are there for everyone to see. After the counting was done on Thursday, the results were not formally announced. Yesterday the Election Commission officially declared the constituency wise results with the required details.

As a responsible media house, Pragativadi had done the exit polls and announced its insightful analysis in the past three general and assembly election for the State. This time also we continued with our immaculate and unblemished record of near-perfect predictions and analysis. Staying well within the instructions of the Election Commission we had reserved our predictions and analysis till 19th May and published those on the 20th of the month, the earliest that could have been possible.

It is a matter of immense pride that we are the only media house of the state that did such an in-depth and insightful examination for all the 21 parliamentary constituencies and 146 assembly constituencies sans Patkura- the election for which could not be conducted due to the unfortunate demise of a contestant. No other media agency of the state, neither print nor electronic, did such a mammoth exercise.

As I mentioned before in the past also we had done the same with immaculate accuracy and this time it was no different. We relied on the tested method and mechanism of deploying our own experienced human resources instead of resorting to employing any survey agency. The successful predictions are largely due to the people who were appropriately trained to administer the right questions to the right people and at the right time. After the data collection, collation and insights generation our prediction was that despite such fierce competition between the two leading political outfits: BJD and BJP in the state, BJD would be able to bag at least 104 assembly seats. Similarly, in spite of their mission 120-plus and relentless ground level works, BJP would not be able to manage more than 26 seats and the Congress party would be able to win not more than 15 seats. As regards to the parliamentary seats of the state, we had predicted 15 for BJD, 5 for BJP and 1 for Congress. This prediction also remained quite close to the eventual results. All these numbers bear every testimony to our claims of a hundred per cent correct predictions. Most of the pundits had expected less number of seats for BJD in the state, as less as 80-85 given the immense popularity of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the countrywide wave of his charisma. BJP has also left no stone unturned in the state of Odisha to find a big headway into the state assembly which could not materialise due to the Naveen Patnaik juggernaut.

The team Pragativadi had done a meticulous survey and subsequently generated insights after a threadbare seat by seat analysis. The predictions published on 20th May had all these details with the names of the possible winners for every parliamentary and assembly seat. BJD won 112 assembly seats attesting our predictions of 104. Despite BJP’s claim of 120-plus seats in the state, our prediction was that they would not be able to bag more than 26 under any circumstance, which eventually happened as they managed only 23. Similarly, for Congress our prediction was not more than 15 and they managed only 9. However, our predictions for the Parliamentary seats may not have been as accurate. Against our prediction of 15 for BJD they managed 12 and BJP won 8 seats for which our prediction was 5. However, our prediction of 1 seat for Congress proved to be true. All these give us enough confidence to claim that Pragativadi’s prediction remained a near hundred per cent correct.

NDA and BJP rode on the popularity of PM Modi and managed an astounding success across the country. However, in Odisha people preferred their own home-grown charismatic leader Naveen Patnaik. BJD created history with this 5th consecutive government in the state. The credit must go to the Chief Minister who has been leading the state for the past 19 years with his work and also the way he reached out to every corner of the state during this election campaigning. He has earnt the confidence from the people of the state by virtue of his relentless hard work, dedication and the package of development that he has been able to translate to meaningful actions in the state and for the people of the state. This also shows in the silent mandate that the women voters have given to Mr Patnaik. His campaigns and road shows were extremely well received by the people.

On the other hand, I would be inclined to believe that there was a clear disconnect between the arrogant claims of both BJP and Congress and the ground reality. People of the state apparently did not fall prey to any promises. They reinforced their faith in what they saw and what they experienced in the past 19 years. I congratulate Prime Minister Narendra Modi for an unbelievable win in the 12th Parliamentary election. However, the way the state has voted for BJD and Mr Naveen Patnaik in particular for a 5th term, he deserves a very special applause. I am sure he will remain true to his words and his vision and will continue working for the larger benefit of the state. We at Pragativadi family wish him all the very best in this endeavour.



Also Read: Pragativadi Exit Poll: Naveen Patnaik as Chief Minister for fifth time

Also Read: Toughest Predictions

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