Covid 3rd wave might be a ‘ripple’, could spread faster if any new virulent variant: Expert


New Delhi: While the nation is reeling under the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, a recent study by the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur has projected that the possible advent of a third wave will be a “ripple” only if there is no significantly rapidly spreading mutant.

The third wave of coronavirus could hit the peak between October-November if Covid appropriate behaviour is not followed, but may see half the daily cases recorded during the second surge, according to a scientist of a government panel tasked with modelling of COVID-19 cases.

Manindra Agarwal, involved in the “Sutra Model” or the mathematical projection of trajectory of COVID-19, also said the model has three scenarios–optimistic, intermediate and pessimistic–for the prediction of the third wave.

The Department of Science and Technology had last year formed the panel to forecast the surge of coronavirus cases using mathematical models.

The study projections come amid the World Health Organisation (WHO) warning on Friday that the world is witnessing a very “dangerous period” owing to the rapidly-spreading Delta variant of coronavirus.

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