China’s Population Shrinks to 1.41 Billion in 2022, First Drop in Six Decades

Beijing: China’s population started shrinking in 2022 for the first time in six decades, the latest milestone in a worsening demographic crisis for the world’s second-largest economy.

The country had 1.41 billion people at the end of last year, 850,000 fewer than the end of 2021, according to data released by the National Statistics Bureau on Tuesday. That marks the first drop since 1961, the final year of the Great Famine under former leader Mao Zedong, and coincided with figures showing China’s economy expanded last year at the second-slowest pace since the 1970s.

Some 9.56 million babies were born in 2022, down from 10.62 million a year earlier, the lowest level since at least 1950, despite efforts by the government to encourage families to have more children.

A total of 10.41 million people died, a slight increase from around 10 million recorded in recent years. China suffered a surge in Covid-related deaths starting last month after abruptly dropping its zero-tolerance approach to the virus in early December. More Covid-related deaths will likely come this year as fatalities usually lag infections by weeks and infections are still spreading across the country. That outbreak could further push up the number of deaths this year.

Mainland China’s population, excluding foreigners, fell by 850,000 people in 2022 to 1.41 billion, the statistics bureau said. The country reported 9.56 million births and 10.41 million deaths for 2022.

The share of the population ages 16 to 59 ticked lower to 62%, down from 62.5% a year earlier.

“The contraction of the total population reflects the impact of the pandemic and the associated economic downturn on fertility demand,” Yue Su, principal economist, Economist Intelligence Unit, said in a note. She said China could see a short-term return to population growth after the impact of the pandemic subsides.

“Despite the negative impact of shrinking population size on China’s long-term growth potential, we recommend companies look at the opportunities embedded in population structure,” she said. “Smaller family sizes will drive the transformation and upgrading of consumption. The ‘silver economy’ associated with ageing trends will be another growth point.”

China said 65.22% of its population lived in urban areas last year, up from 64.72% the prior year. About 83% of the U.S. population lived in urban areas as of 2021, according to the World Bank.

In 2021, China’s population grew by the slowest increase on record. The mainland China population, excluding foreigners, rose by 480,000 to 1.41 billion people at the end of 2021, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

New births on the mainland fell by 13% in 2021 to 10.62 million babies, the data showed. In 2020, new births fell by 22%, according to the data.

Separately over the weekend, Chinese health authorities disclosed nearly 60,000 Covid-related deaths in Chinese hospitals between Dec. 8, 2022, and Jan. 12, 2023. The majority were senior citizens, and the average age of death was 80.3 years, authorities said.